Report from Washington – Election 2016
Congress returned to the nation’s capital after more than seven weeks back home campaigning for reelection in probably the most unpredictable election cycle in the 20th and 21st centuries, with two very unpopular presidential candidates at the top of the national tickets. This unpredictable cycle has quickly filtered down into the Congressional elections. The situation is more pronounced in the Republican Party since the Party has not fully embraced its presidential candidate, Donald Trump, and could be very problematic in many down-ballot races. So, the Republicans in Washington want to pass the necessary government spending bills and return home as quickly as possible to continue campaigning exposing the fractures within the Republican House and making it harder to leave town.
Clinton vs. Trump
Nationally, the presidential race is tightening to within a few points in most national polls as the two independent candidates are factored in. This is a result of a combination of factors including Donald Trump taking a more disciplined and focused approach on the campaign trail, Clinton’s rising unfavorable numbers stemming from ongoing controversies surrounding the Clinton Foundation, her continuing email controversies, and Clinton campaign missteps.
However, despite a competitive race nationally, Clinton continues to be the favorite to win in November given her polling and campaign’s advantages in the battleground states, which include Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Moreover, Clinton has multiple paths to the nomination given her campaign’s current Electoral College advantage. On the other hand, Trump’s path remains limited to the Rust Belt and he will need to carry at least Ohio, Pennsylvania and/or Florida as well as a near sweep of the other battleground states including Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The Republican Party has begun to pull out of Virginia further limiting his options. Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without winning at least two of three states between Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Trump’s possible advantage is that 20 percent of the electorate is still undecided.
This week’s first presidential debate could have provided a decisive turning point – or not!
Congressional Elections
While presidential contests typically play an outsized role in shaping Senate races in those cycles where they overlap, this year is shaping up to be an anomaly in that there appears to be a significant amount of ticket splitting between the top of the ticket and down ballot candidates – GOP Senate candidates in particular.
U.S. Senate
The Republicans are defending many more of their members this cycle than the Democrats and that compounds the Republican’s problem of not performing well in the last couple of Presidential Elections. Republican Senators Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson will likely lose in Illinois and Wisconsin, respectively. Republican Senators Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Richard Burr in North Carolina have very difficult races. The Republicans have fielded a good candidate for the Nevada Senate seat, an open seat with the retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, which may decide which party controls the Senate in 2017.
On the other side, the Democrats need to pick-up a net of just four seats to flip control of the chamber, if Clinton wins the presidency, or five if Trump wins. At this point in the race, Democrats also have good opportunities in Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Katie McGinty has a slight lead in the polls over incumbent Republican Pat Toomey. In Indiana, former Democratic Senator and Governor Evan Bayh leads Republican Congressman Todd Young for the open seat. In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte has relinquished her lead to Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan and is now trailing in most polls. In North Carolina, incumbent Republican Richard Burr maintains a slight advantage over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross despite voter pushback against the state’s governor and legislature. That leaves the open seat in Nevada, which could decide which party controls the Senate come January 2017. There, Congressman Joe Heck leads former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto by a small 4 point margin. But, the excellent Nevada Democrats’ Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort, created in 2010 by Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, could make the difference in the state.
U.S. House
In the House, where Republicans hold a 30-seat advantage, estimates are the GOP will lose somewhere around 10-15 seats (see Cook Political Report House Race Ratings). However, the extent of GOP losses will likely depend on Clinton and Trump’s respective performance at the top of the ticket and the rate of ticket splitting with down ballot candidates. In House elections, ticket splitting is at a near historical low. In fact, in 2012, the percentage of ticket-splitting districts slipped into single digits for the first time in 92 years with just 26 members of Congress representing districts that the presidential nominee not of their party won. This year, given the GOP’s 30 seat majority, Clinton would need to take about 54 percent of the popular vote nationwide to create enough of a wave for Democrats to gain a net of 30 seats (see Democrats Could Win Back the House in November). While possible, a 54 percent showing would be the highest percentage a winning presidential candidate has received in two decades. Further, recent history seems to indicate that a significant margin of victory by Clinton still might not be enough to propel a Democratic takeover of the House. For only the fourth time in 100 years, in 2012, the party that pulled the most total popular votes nationwide did not win control of the House. While Barack Obama took 52 percent of the vote and Democratic House candidates nationwide tallied more votes than Republican candidates, Democrats only picked up a net of eight seats. The last time this occurred was in 1952, when Democrats won the popular vote but Republicans won the House.
Lame Duck Session
Congress will be required to return to Washington for a very contentious session that could run through the end of the year before a final spending package is enacted. Some Republicans have wanted to pass a longer term Continuing Resolution or stopgap funding at current levels through the first three months of the next administration. However, there are other Republicans that want to pass the appropriations bills they completed in the House earlier this year, while the Democrats want short term spending. If they take one House or the other, and Clinton wins, they can quickly shape the agenda for the next few years.
Another major issue is the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement (TPP). Senator McConnell has warned he wants the next president to lead that effort. Both presidential candidates have expressed their disapproval of the agreement but Clinton has been a free trade proponent for her entire career. There are several poison pills in the TPP that could be resolved, however, before the next administration takes office. If Trump wins the election, the Senate could try to pass the agreement before he assumes office.
ISRI will be closely watching the appropriations process as the 114th Congress comes to a close to ensure nothing problematic is inserted into the large omnibus spending package and preparing the scrap recycling industry’s agenda for the 115th Congress and a new administration no matter who wins.